MKT
Market Intelligence
ESC price forecasts, supply/demand analysis, and market alerts — shared from WREI market data pipeline.
ESC PRICE FORECAST
Model v1.0.0 (demo) | Loading...HOLD (59%)
Est. Value
+$0.45/cert
80% CI 95% CI Forecast
| Horizon | Forecast | 80% CI | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | $23.85 | $23.10 — $24.60 | $22.50 — $25.20 |
| 4w | $24.30 | $22.80 — $25.80 | $21.90 — $26.70 |
| 12w | $25.50 | $22.00 — $28.50 | $20.50 — $30.50 |
| 26w | $26.80 | $21.00 — $29.00 | $18.50 — $31.50 |
REGIME PROBABILITY
surplus 25%
balanced 55%
tightening 20%
Current regime: balanced
SUPPLY & DEMAND (loading...)
CUMULATIVE SURPLUS (ESCs)
Q1 '24
Q2 '24
Q3 '24
Q4 '24
Q1 '25
Q2 '25
Q3 '25
Q4 '25
Historical Forecast
CREATION VELOCITY
145K/wk (4w avg)
158K/wk (12w avg)
decelerating
-8.2% vs trend
SURPLUS RUNWAY
~3.2 yearsADEQUATE
At current rates: 8.3M surplus
NEXT SURRENDER DEADLINE
5 Apr 2027361d
CREATION ACTIVITY MIX
28%
22%
18%
15%
12%
Commercial LightingHVAC UpgradesPower Factor CorrectionBuilding EnvelopeIndustrial ProcessOther
INTELLIGENCE ALERTS
4 activecriticalPolicy2h ago+15.0% est.
IPART: Commercial lighting method sunset — March 2026
warningCreation6h ago+3.3% est.
Creation slowdown detected (22% below trend)
infoSentiment1d ago+2.1% est.
Ecovantage: Bullish sentiment (concern=7/10)
infoSurplus2d ago+1.5% est.
Surplus tightening — 3.2 years remaining